The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, as expected — the fifth consecutive meeting without a change, and the second under Chair Kevin Warsh. The statement was released at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m.

Going in, fed funds futures had put the odds of a hold at roughly 64%, per CME Group data — comfortable, but not overwhelming, leaving room for the meeting to surprise. It didn't move rates, but it wasn't a quiet one either.

What Warsh Said

At the press conference, Warsh reiterated that the Committee remains "fully committed to restoring price stability" and has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation" — language consistent with the harder line he's taken since becoming chair. True to his stated preference for less forward guidance than his predecessors, he stopped short of signaling which way the Committee is leaning for September.

That restraint didn't stop a hawkish undercurrent from surfacing anyway. Several policymakers have used public remarks in recent weeks to argue for tighter policy: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she sees a case for rates "modestly" higher, while Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari, and Governor Christopher Waller have all made supportive comments for firmer policy given still-elevated inflation. Whether any of that translated into a formal dissent will be confirmed when the meeting minutes are released in three weeks — the statement itself doesn't detail individual votes the way the minutes eventually will.

Why the Backdrop Got More Complicated

The decision landed against cooler-than-expected inflation data — the June CPI print, released July 14, showed headline inflation at 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, both below forecasts (see our earlier post on the cooling CPI print). Normally that would argue for a more dovish tilt.

Working against that: higher energy prices and renewed tension with Iran in recent weeks, which put fresh upward pressure on the inflation outlook right as the Committee was weighing its decision. That combination — cooler core inflation, but a fresh energy-driven risk to the outlook — is likely why Warsh kept his options open rather than leaning either direction.

Where SOFR Stands

SOFR was last published at 3.65% for July 28, 2026, per the New York Fed — tracking near the top of the 3.50%–3.75% range, consistent with a Fed that's holding steady. As with every meeting that doesn't move the target range, today's decision doesn't retroactively change what's owed on a Compounded SOFR in Arrears loan; that structure only reflects realized daily fixings. Where a hold (or a shift in hike odds) shows up fastest is in Term SOFR, which is derived from futures pricing and can reprice on shifting rate expectations well before the Fed actually moves — the same dynamic we walked through after the June meeting in our FOMC/SOFR loan-impact explainer.

What's Next

Two days from now, the Bank of Japan meets July 30–31, publishing its Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices on the 31st — a meeting we previewed alongside this one in last week's post. After that, the next FOMC decision isn't until September 15–16, which will also come with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections — the next point where the median "dot" could move and where today's hawkish undercurrent either fades or hardens into an actual shift.

For borrowers, the practical takeaway hasn't changed since June: know which SOFR convention your loan uses, because a Term SOFR facility and a Compounded-in-Arrears facility will respond to today's news on very different timelines, and it's worth modeling both a flat-rate scenario and one with a hike layered in before September.

Want to see exactly what you owe under either scenario? Use the free SOFR/SONIA/€STR loan calculator to compute compounded-in-arrears or Term SOFR interest on your exact loan dates — no sign-up required.

Sources: CBS News – Fed rate decision preview, CNBC – Fed meeting live coverage, July 29, 2026, The Motley Fool – Kevin Warsh and the July Fed meeting, New York Fed – SOFR, Federal Reserve – FOMC meeting calendar, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – CPI.